SWP Newsletter – August 2024

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Most of us have been experiencing unexpectedly cold temperatures and high rainfall lately but the good news is that spring is on the way. As the days grow longer and warmer, there can be a sense of optimism and a feeling of renewal.

Market watchers, investors and mortgage holders, who’d been anxiously awaiting the release of the latest inflation data at the end of July, could neither jump for joy nor collapse in despair.

The best that could be said about the figures was that they were not as bad as they could have been. It remains to be seen how the Reserve Bank board will view inflation’s modest increase when it meets on August 5 and whether it decides on an interest rate rise to counter it. The Australian Bureau of Statistics says prices rose 1% in the June quarter and 3.8% annually.

Retail sales continue to splutter along with the latest data showing a 0.5% increase in sales in June thanks to the sales but over the quarter, retail sales volumes fell 0.3% for the sixth time in the past seven quarters. Meanwhile, building approvals fell 6.5% in June after a 5.7% rise the previous month.

The ASX S&P 200 index finished the month strongly with an increase of around 4%, riding out a mid-month plunge. But the currency didn’t fare quite as well, falling below US65 cents for the first time in almost three months. In the US, the S&P 500 finished the month almost where it began after a big mid-month upward spike then fall but, for the year to date, it’s recorded an increase of almost 15%.