Cube Online

Wars in Europe and the Middle East, volatile oil prices and shifting US policies are making headlines but failing to dampen the optimism of the markets.

The ASX closed the financial year with a near 10% return – its strongest since the COVID-19 crisis and despite US tariff threats.

Australia is somewhat insulated from the tariffs, but concern lingers that the federal government’s $1.5 trillion invested in the US, faces a tax hike.

The tariffs are a bigger risk for the US economy, with inflationary risks from tariffs possibly prompting rate increases. Nonetheless, Wall Street remains upbeat. The S&P 500 index surged to a four-month high in June on hopes of further rate cuts and smooth trade negotiations.

In Australia, forecasts of further interest rate cuts have fractured since tensions flared in the Middle East, with some expecting a July cut and others now tipping August.

The Aussie dollar has climbed to a seven-month high, while the US dollar tumbled to a three-year low.

Oil prices posted their sharpest weekly declines after a spike during June as the Middle East conflict reached boiling point.

Now that the federal election is out of the way, and another financial year is drawing to a close, it’s a perfect time to look back at all you’ve achieved over the past 12 months and focus on a fresh start for the financial year to come.

While market volatility continued, markets largely recovered from April’s losses in May. However, the legal and economic uncertainty of US tariffs remain a key concern for global and local markets.

The end of the month saw the S&P/ASX 200 react positively at first to the news that a US federal judge had blocked the tariffs. When an appeals court temporarily stayed the tariffs hours later, a mini sell-off followed. The index has jumpstarted its way to a three-month high, not quite back to its best in February.

There was a sigh of relief all round when the Reserve Bank lowered interest rates in May by 25 basis points to 3.85%. The RBA’s move came with a caveat that, while domestic demand “appears” to be recovering and real household incomes have picked up, the outlook is unclear because of both local and international developments.

Inflation was slightly higher than expected for the 12 months to April, but it remained within the RBA’s target range and many economists are predicting another rate cut in July.

Meanwhile fears of inflation in the United States and alarm about unpredictable and escalating tariffs saw sharp falls on Wall Street during March, particularly in the final week.

In Australia, the events in the US, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East and the start of the federal election campaign have all made their mark. The S&P/ASX 200 reacted with an almost 5% drop during March.

The Australian dollar, in the doldrums all year, improved slightly during the month before ending lower at around 63US cents.

Economic growth was up 0.6% in the December quarter and 1.3% for the year and household wealth climbed 0.9% in the same period.Inflation rose 2.4% in the 12 months to February, a slight softening from the previous month’s increase of 2.5%.

Consumer sentiment recorded a 4% rise in March, according to the Melbourne Institute and Westpac Bank Sentiment index. The RBA’s decision to cut interest rates in February and a further easing in cost-of-living pressures have provided a clear lift.  

Inflation remained steady in February, at 2.5 per cent and core inflation at 2.8 per cent; however, the RBA remains cautious and has not guaranteed further cash rate cuts in 2025. Some economists are predicting further cuts in 2025, but time will tell.

While there is ongoing tension between Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East, and a looming trade war due to Trump’s proposed tariffs, the global economic outlook continues to remain unpredictable.

US markets reacted to the lower-than-expected consumer spending and continued geopolitical issues, with another month of volatility.

It’s also been volatile on the Aussie share market, with the ASX 200 losing ground earlier in the month, bouncing back to reach an all-time high, only to start falling again to close at it’s lowest point in two months.

A similar pattern has been happening with the Aussie dollar, reaching a high of $0.64US cents mid-February, then losing momentum, and now hovering around $0.62US cents.

The government provided some cost-of-living relief, which has had a cooling effect on inflation – sitting at 2.4 per cent at the December 2024 quarter, down from 2.8 per cent in September 2024. Trimmed inflation is 3.4 per cent, down from 3.6 per cent last quarter. While inflation is nearing its target, multiple interest rate cuts throughout 2025 would be welcomed by mortgage holders.

Recently, Trump 2.0 has been making global headlines, the tech clash between the US and China has also been dominating. Last week, US tech giant Nvidia recorded a 17 per cent plunge in a single day, which is now the biggest loss in US share market history. This was due to Chinese AI company DeepSeek unveiling a program to rival its competitors and become more cost-effective to operate. Markets made a quick recovery.

Domestically, the ASX 200 continued a bumpy ride, although it finished the month at an all-time high of 8,532 points.

The Aussie dollar is holding steady around 62 US cents.

The government provided some cost-of-living relief, which has had a cooling effect on inflation – sitting at 2.4 per cent at the December 2024 quarter, down from 2.8 per cent in September 2024. Trimmed inflation is 3.4 per cent, down from 3.6 per cent last quarter. While inflation is nearing its target, multiple interest rate cuts throughout 2025 would be welcomed by mortgage holders.

Recently, Trump 2.0 has been making global headlines, the tech clash between the US and China has also been dominating. Last week, US tech giant Nvidia recorded a 17 per cent plunge in a single day, which is now the biggest loss in US share market history. This was due to Chinese AI company DeepSeek unveiling a program to rival its competitors and become more cost-effective to operate. Markets made a quick recovery.

Domestically, the ASX 200 continued a bumpy ride, although it finished the month at an all-time high of 8,532 points.

The Aussie dollar is holding steady around 62 US cents.

As 2024 drew to a close, the year finished much as it had begun, with a strong focus on inflation, stagnant interest rates and Australia’s housing market.

Returning inflation to target is the Reserve Bank’s highest priority. While there has been substantial progress as inflation continues to fall, figures are yet to reach the 2-3% target set by the RBA. The latest data shows a slight rise to 2.3% with underlying inflation sitting at 3.2%, down from 3.5%.

In December, the Board left the cash rate at 4.35% which hasn’t moved in 14 months. All eyes will be on the RBA announcement in February as there has been speculation of a rate cut; however, the Board remains cautious and will not give any indication as to when they will make the first rate cut in 2025. House prices continued to soften, with national home prices recording the first decline in almost two years in December.

Stock markets closed out a strong year on a weaker note with the Dow Jones ending December around 5% lower and the S&P/ASX 200 falling a little over 3% as the anticipated ‘Santa rally’ did not eventuate.

The Australian dollar ended the year in the doldrums at just under 62 US cents.

While headline inflation eased to 2.8% in the September quarter, the Reserve Bank remains unmoved on interest rates. RBA Governor Michelle Bullock says the drop in the cost of living may be welcome relief for most of us, but the Board’s measure to watch is trimmed mean inflation and that’s still not “sustainably” in the desired target range of 2-3%. It’s not likely to get there until late in 2026, the RBA predicts.

The sharemarket reacted sharply to the Governor’s comments in the last days of a month that had seen several all-time highs. US President-elect Donald Trump’s promise for 25% tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods also contributed to the billion dollar shares sell-off. Nonetheless, the S&P ASX200 finished November 3.4% higher.

The Australian dollar is also taking a beating from the possibility of both the US tariffs and the RBA’s rates forecast. It hit a seven-month low below 65 US cents near the end of the month.

And, in good news the ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index, while down slightly has stayed above a mark of 85 points for the sixth week in a row for the first time in two years. Commonwealth Bank projections expect a boost in sales for small businesses thanks to the Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales and the coming festive period.

Interest rates are expected to remain on hold when the Reserve Bank board meets next week despite welcome news on the inflation front. The Consumer Price Index rose just 0.2% in the September quarter and 2.8% for the year, the lowest rate in just over three years. Prices fell slightly for alcohol and tobacco, clothing, housing, health, and financial services. Transport costs also fell for the first time since 2020.

Share prices softened during the past two weeks of October, recorded the worst monthly performance in six months. The S&P/ASX 200 closed slightly down by 0.3% over the month, after again reaching record highs mid-month.

The Australian dollar ended the month at 65.7 US cents after almost hitting 70 US cents just a few weeks ago. Investors were reacting to the weaker than expected Australian retail sales and stronger US unemployment and retail sales figures.

Iron ore has hit a one-month low at USD104.08 after the heady highs in January of almost USD 145 in January. All eyes are on meetings in China next week about expanding its stimulus measures.