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SWP Newsletter – July 2024

With the shortest day behind us, the longer days ahead will give us a chance to enjoy the outdoors, even if there’s still a need to rug up.

Technology stocks have driven Australian shares, and global markets, to new highs in the last 12 months. The S&P/ASX 200 finished the financial year 7.8% higher, slightly less than the previous year. Technology stocks gained 28% during the year.

In the US, the S&P 500 index rose 14% in the first six months of 2024 in one of the strongest performances since the dotcom bubble of the 1990s. Tech stocks were behind much of the gain, in particular AI chipmaker Nvidia, which overtook Microsoft and Apple as the world’s most valuable public company last month.

An interest rate cut is widely expected in September in the US but in Australia, many commentators predict another rate increase before the end of the year to help tame inflation. The RBA left interest rates unchanged at 4.35% at its June meeting but news that annual CPI was up by 4.0% in May compared with 3.6% in April will give the Bank cause for concern.

The Australian dollar ended the financial year almost where it began at just under US67 cents, after 12 months of volatility with highs of almost US69 cents and lows under US63 cents.

Winter 2024

With Winter now officially underway, some might be heading north to warm up and others may lean into the cold on the snowfields. Whichever you choose, don’t forget the approaching end of financial year.

A slight increase in the Consumer Price Index last month, to 3.6% from 3.5% in March, has led some economists to predict we’ll be waiting longer for the first official interest rate cuts, perhaps until the end of next year, with little to no chance of a rate rise in the meantime. While inflation has been relatively stable over the past five months, this is the second monthly increase in a row. The biggest price increases were in the housing, food and beverages, alcohol and tobacco, and transport sectors. Retail spending continues to be weak. The 0.1% increase in turnover in April wasn’t enough to make up for a 0.4% drop in March.

The higher-than-expected inflation figures saw Australian share prices take a tumble after reaching a welcome high mid-month. The ASX200 finished the month on a positive note, slightly higher for the month of May. In the US, troubles in the tech sector and a global bond sell-off saw small losses on the Dow, the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 while European markets in London, France and Germany also finished the month on a low.

A strong US dollar along with the uptick in Australia’s inflation data saw the Aussie dollar fall from a mid-month peak of just over US67 cents.

SWP Newsletter – May 2024

As winter approaches and the weather grows cooler, commentary around the 2024-25 Federal Budget is heating up, with the government facing the tension between addressing cost of living pressures without contributing to rising inflation.

The cost of living continues to bite with consumers keeping their wallets firmly closed. Retail sales fell 0.4% in March after getting a boost from the ‘Taylor Swift effect’ the previous month and prices continue to rise with a CPI increase in the March quarter to 3.6% annually. Education, health, housing and food recorded the biggest price increases for the quarter.

The markets have been subdued too with the prospect of further interest rate rises both in Australia and the US. The S&P/ASX 200 was down by about 2.5% for April. Some economists are predicting that we may not see the first cuts in interest rates until November. Mining stocks have been generally buoyant as commodity prices continue to surge while the energy and retail sectors have struggled.

The Australian dollar is back from the doldrums mid-month to end April at just over US65c. But with a strengthening US dollar, economists are rethinking their six-month outlooks for the Aussie with predictions now of between US65c and US69c. The surprise player in our currency’s fortunes has been the ailing Japanese yen. Its weakness has been our gain with the Aussie ending April above 100 yen, its highest level since 2014.

SWP Newsletter – March 2024

After a summer of quite extreme weather in many places around Australia, we can hopefully look forward to the cooler, calmer weather that Autumn brings.

While economic bright spots can be found in Australia right now, there are also some less than stellar results.

On the positive, inflation has remained at a two-year low giving some commentators confidence of a rate cut in the coming months. CPI was steady at 3.4% in the 12 months to January. In other good news, business capital investment rose in the December quarter to be 7.9% higher than it was 12 months before and average weekly earnings rose by 4.5% or $81 per week.

It has been a mixed report for retail, with a 1.1% increase in sales for January but that wasn’t enough to make up for the 2.1% loss in December.The Australian dollar remains in the doldrums, weakening below 65.2 US cents after reaching a high of 69.48 near the end of 2023.

Australian shares were up by just over 1% for the month after a shaky start thanks to worries over US interest rates and China. US stocks edged higher during February with the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching record highs during the month. February was dominated by news of the massive profit report by artificial intelligence chipmaker Nvidia, which had a massive effect on markets across the world.

Autumn 2024

After a summer of quite extreme weather in many places around Australia, we can hopefully look forward to the cooler, calmer weather that Autumn brings.

While economic bright spots can be found in Australia right now, there are also some less than stellar results.

On the positive, inflation has remained at a two-year low giving some commentators confidence of a rate cut in the coming months. CPI was steady at 3.4% in the 12 months to January. In other good news, business capital investment rose in the December quarter to be 7.9% higher than it was 12 months before and average weekly earnings rose by 4.5% or $81 per week.

It has been a mixed report for retail, with a 1.1% increase in sales for January but that wasn’t enough to make up for the 2.1% loss in December.The Australian dollar remains in the doldrums, weakening below 65.2 US cents after reaching a high of 69.48 near the end of 2023.

Australian shares were up by just over 1% for the month after a shaky start thanks to worries over US interest rates and China. US stocks edged higher during February with the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching record highs during the month. February was dominated by news of the massive profit report by artificial intelligence chipmaker Nvidia, which had a massive effect on markets across the world.

SWP Newsletter – February 2024

As February kicks off and with the summer holidays behind us, many of us are settling back into our regular routines and it’s time to turn our focus to the year ahead.

Cooling inflation and a strong economy with relatively low unemployment has sent investors back to Australian shares, with the S&P/ASX 200 hitting an all-time high on the last day of January. It was up by more than 12% since the end of October 2023.

Annual CPI for 2023 was 4.1%, much closer to the Reserve Bank’s target of between 2% and 3%. CPI in the December quarter was the lowest since March 2021 and below market expectations. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.9% in December.

However, prices for most goods and services are still rising and the fall in discretionary spending is taking retail sales with it. Retail turnover fell 2.7% in December after a fall of 1.6% in November.

The falling inflation figures and the expectation that the RBA would hold interest rates saw a drop in the Australian dollar, which is also coming under pressure from a strengthening US economy.

Oil prices, at the mercy of a contraction in Chinese economic activity and the crisis in the Middle East have steadied with Brent Crude at just over $80 a barrel.

While the iron ore price halted its rise in January with a rapid dip mid month, it’s since climbed back, defying expectations.

SWP Newsletter – January 2024

It’s December – the month that always seem to race by as we approach the end of the year and all the festivities it brings. We hope you all have a lovely, happy, and safe festive season.

On the economic news front, there was some good news. Consumer prices eased by more than expected in October. The news that inflation may have been tamed means interest rate rises may be behind us, for now. The positive data also led to a jump in the Australian dollar, taking it to a new four-month high.

Retail spending slowed in October after a short-lived boost in August and September. But, in a further sign of good times ahead, business investment in the September quarter increased by 0.6% to almost $40 billion.

In mixed outcomes for sharemarket investors, there were some devastating lows this year, and a flat performance as November ended, but the ASX200 is up 4 points since the beginning of the year. The unemployment rate has increased slightly to 3.7% with an extra 27,900 people out of work in October.

Overseas, China’s plan to bolster support for infrastructure drove iron ore prices 36% higher than the low in May. Although prices slipped $4 in November from a one-year high of $138 per tonne. While oil prices have steadied with cuts to production on the table to reduce stocks. Brent crude ended the month at around $83.

SWP Newsletter – December 2023

It’s December – the month that always seem to race by as we approach the end of the year and all the festivities it brings. We hope you all have a lovely, happy, and safe festive season.

On the economic news front, there was some good news. Consumer prices eased by more than expected in October. The news that inflation may have been tamed means interest rate rises may be behind us, for now. The positive data also led to a jump in the Australian dollar, taking it to a new four-month high.

Retail spending slowed in October after a short-lived boost in August and September. But, in a further sign of good times ahead, business investment in the September quarter increased by 0.6% to almost $40 billion.

In mixed outcomes for sharemarket investors, there were some devastating lows this year, and a flat performance as November ended, but the ASX200 is up 4 points since the beginning of the year. The unemployment rate has increased slightly to 3.7% with an extra 27,900 people out of work in October.

Overseas, China’s plan to bolster support for infrastructure drove iron ore prices 36% higher than the low in May. Although prices slipped $4 in November from a one-year high of $138 per tonne. While oil prices have steadied with cuts to production on the table to reduce stocks. Brent crude ended the month at around $83.

Summer 2023

It’s December – the month that always seem to race by as we approach the end of the year and all the festivities it brings. We hope you all have a lovely, happy, and safe festive season.

On the economic news front, there was some good news. Consumer prices eased by more than expected in October. The news that inflation may have been tamed means interest rate rises may be behind us, for now. The positive data also led to a jump in the Australian dollar, taking it to a new four-month high.

Retail spending slowed in October after a short-lived boost in August and September. But, in a further sign of good times ahead, business investment in the September quarter increased by 0.6% to almost $40 billion.

In mixed outcomes for sharemarket investors, there were some devastating lows this year, and a flat performance as November ended, but the ASX200 is up 4 points since the beginning of the year. The unemployment rate has increased slightly to 3.7% with an extra 27,900 people out of work in October.

Overseas, China’s plan to bolster support for infrastructure drove iron ore prices 36% higher than the low in May. Although prices slipped $4 in November from a one-year high of $138 per tonne. While oil prices have steadied with cuts to production on the table to reduce stocks. Brent crude ended the month at around $83.