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March 2026

March has arrived, and with that the weather starts to cool; this brings a fresh chapter and a chance to set your pace for the months ahead.

February delivered mixed signals for the Australian economy.

Labour market conditions were steady. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, with 18,000 more people employed in January, driven by a rise in full-time jobs and partly offset by a fall in part-time roles.

Wage growth continued to edge higher, up 0.8% in the December quarter and 3.4% over the year, while household spending softened.

Inflation was slightly higher than expected, with CPI remaining at 3.8%, and trimmed inflation (the RBA’s measure of underlying inflation) increasing to 3.4%, up from 3.3%.

Reporting season added its usual volatility to the share market and the ASX hit several record highs towards the end of the month.

The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell further by 2.6% to 90.5 in February, impacted by February’s cash rate increase.

The Australian dollar strengthened, largely due to global risk sentiment, hitting a three-year high of USD 0.71 by month’s end.

March 2026

March has arrived, and with that the weather starts to cool; this brings a fresh chapter and a chance to set your pace for the months ahead.

February delivered mixed signals for the Australian economy.

Labour market conditions were steady. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, with 18,000 more people employed in January, driven by a rise in full-time jobs and partly offset by a fall in part-time roles.

Wage growth continued to edge higher, up 0.8% in the December quarter and 3.4% over the year, while household spending softened.

Inflation was slightly higher than expected, with CPI remaining at 3.8%, and trimmed inflation (the RBA’s measure of underlying inflation) increasing to 3.4%, up from 3.3%.

Reporting season added its usual volatility to the share market and the ASX hit several record highs towards the end of the month.

The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell further by 2.6% to 90.5 in February, impacted by February’s cash rate increase.

The Australian dollar strengthened, largely due to global risk sentiment, hitting a three-year high of USD 0.71 by month’s end.

Autumn 2026

March has arrived, and with that the weather starts to cool; this brings a fresh chapter and a chance to set your pace for the months ahead.

February delivered mixed signals for the Australian economy.

Labour market conditions were steady. The unemployment rate held at 4.1%, with 18,000 more people employed in January, driven by a rise in full-time jobs and partly offset by a fall in part-time roles.

Wage growth continued to edge higher, up 0.8% in the December quarter and 3.4% over the year, while household spending softened.

Inflation was slightly higher than expected, with CPI remaining at 3.8%, and trimmed inflation (the RBA’s measure of underlying inflation) increasing to 3.4%, up from 3.3%.

Reporting season added its usual volatility to the share market and the ASX hit several record highs towards the end of the month.

The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell further by 2.6% to 90.5 in February, impacted by February’s cash rate increase.

The Australian dollar strengthened, largely due to global risk sentiment, hitting a three-year high of USD 0.71 by month’s end.

February 2026

As we say goodbye to the summer holiday period, 2026 kicked off with some encouraging signs but it comes with a sting in the tail as global uncertainty continues to shake things up.

There was a surprise drop in unemployment in December to 4.1%, the number of jobs available increased and household spending grew.

However, these elements have also contributed to persistently increasing inflation. In a higher-than-expected result, CPI rose 3.8% in the 12 months to December, up on the November figure and exceeding forecasts by economists and the RBA.

Many commentators are now predicting at least two, and perhaps-even three, interest rate rises this year.

The Aussie dollar remains strong, finishing the month at US$0.70. It’s up 11.4% since US President Trump’s inauguration while the US dollar has suffered, falling 11.2% during the same period.

The S&P/ASX 200 climbed 1.8% in January, reaching 8,869 come month’s end, but there’s still ground to be made up to reach last October’s peak.

The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index slipped 1.7% lower to 92.9 in January from 94.5 in December.

Summer 2025

With summer now upon us, it is the season of family gatherings, end of year celebrations, and holidays. We would like to wish you and your family a happy and safe festive season.

The economy came under renewed pressure in November as inflation accelerated. The first full monthly CPI release showed annual inflation rising to 3.8% in October, up from 3.6% the previous month. The Reserve Bank kept rates on hold in November and some economists are warning a rate rise may be on the horizon, possibly before the end of the year.

Despite the uncertainty, consumers may be getting their mojo back. The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index surged in November to its highest level since February 2022.

Unemployment eased a little to 4.3% in October after hitting a four-year high of 4.5% in September but wage growth remains higher, prompting concern from the RBA over the continued tight labour market.

Equity markets were volatile around the world thanks to uncertainty over the growing AI bubble, rising government debt and the ever-changing US tariff regime. Surging commodity prices halted the slide of the Australian dollar in the last week of the month with gold hitting record highs and iron ore prices holding firm. The Australian dollar hit a two-week high, finishing the month at $0.653.

November 2025

Australia’s economy remained under pressure in October with a surprise bump in inflation, dampening hopes of a rate cut and prompting some economists to predict the next move in interest rates may be an increase.

Headline CPI rose to 3.2% in the September quarter, up from 2.1% in June, the highest quarterly rise in more than two years.

News of the higher-than-expected inflation numbers was followed by the biggest daily fall in the Australian share market in two months. Wall Street ended the month subdued with mixed results over concerns about no further rate cuts this year but optimism about US-China relations after a positive meeting between the leaders.

The lift in inflation appears to have rattled consumers. The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell 3.5% in October, adding up to a 6.5% drop in the past two months after gains between May and August when rate cuts were giving a boost.

The Aussie dollar strengthened by the end of the month, closing at US65.4c, making up some of the lost ground of the previous fortnight.

Unemployment rose to 4.5% in September, the highest in nearly four years.

October 2025

Australia’s economy showed resilience in September, with inflation remaining sticky and the RBA holding rates steady at 3.6%.

Headline CPI rose more than expected, from 2.8% to 3% prompting analysts to push back forecasts for further rate cuts until November or early 2026. Core inflation fell slightly to 2.6%, edging closer to the RBA’s target band, but price pressures persist in housing and services.

GDP grew 0.6% in the June quarter, driven by a rebound in consumer spending and solid wage growth. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%.

Despite cautious consumer sentiment – the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell 3.1% in September – business confidence remains upbeat, particularly in retail and manufacturing.

Despite the August/September period noted for being seasonally weak, markets remain at near record levels. The ASX 200 was supported by strong performance in banking and mining stocks. US equities, meanwhile, continue to push higher off the back of the AI boom and anticipation of rate cuts.

Commodity prices and risk appetite helped the Australian dollar touch an 11- month high before easing slightly.

October 2025

Australia’s economy showed resilience in September, with inflation remaining sticky and the RBA holding rates steady at 3.6%.

Headline CPI rose more than expected, from 2.8% to 3% prompting analysts to push back forecasts for further rate cuts until November or early 2026. Core inflation fell slightly to 2.6%, edging closer to the RBA’s target band, but price pressures persist in housing and services.

GDP grew 0.6% in the June quarter, driven by a rebound in consumer spending and solid wage growth. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%.

Despite cautious consumer sentiment – the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell 3.1% in September – business confidence remains upbeat, particularly in retail and manufacturing.

Despite the August/September period noted for being seasonally weak, markets remain at near record levels. The ASX 200 was supported by strong performance in banking and mining stocks. US equities, meanwhile, continue to push higher off the back of the AI boom and anticipation of rate cuts.

Commodity prices and risk appetite helped the Australian dollar touch an 11- month high before easing slightly.

SWP Newsletter – September 2025

Spring is here, bringing longer days and an opportunity to venture outdoors and enjoy the warmer months ahead.

A higher-than-expected jump in inflation figures may prompt the RBA keep interest rates on hold at this month’s meeting. Headline CPI climbed to 2.8%, up from 1.9%. The trimmed mean, the RBA’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation, also rose to 2.7% in July from 2.1% in June.

Markets responded cautiously, though the S&P/ASX 200 still edged higher for the month and notching another all-time high. The rally was driven by mining and banking stocks.

The unemployment dipped slightly to 4.2% in July and business confidence is upbeat. The number of Australian businesses rose by 2.5% over the past financial year to more than 2.7 million. Total wages and salaries increased 5.9 per cent year-on-year. The momentum appears to be lifting consumer sentiment with the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index posting a solid gain 5.7% in August, a 3.5 year high.

As Aussie dollar finished the month at US65c and continues to be shaped by global factors.

In the US, the S&P 500 hit records highs, led by tech giants, as investors weighed tariff impacts and speculated on future rate cuts.

Spring 2025

Spring is here, bringing longer days and an opportunity to venture outdoors and enjoy the warmer months ahead.

A higher-than-expected jump in inflation figures may prompt the RBA keep interest rates on hold at this month’s meeting. Headline CPI climbed to 2.8%, up from 1.9%. The trimmed mean, the RBA’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation, also rose to 2.7% in July from 2.1% in June.

Markets responded cautiously, though the S&P/ASX 200 still edged higher for the month and notching another all-time high. The rally was driven by mining and banking stocks.

The unemployment dipped slightly to 4.2% in July and business confidence is upbeat. The number of Australian businesses rose by 2.5% over the past financial year to more than 2.7 million. Total wages and salaries increased 5.9 per cent year-on-year. The momentum appears to be lifting consumer sentiment with the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index posting a solid gain 5.7% in August, a 3.5 year high.

As Aussie dollar finished the month at US65c and continues to be shaped by global factors.

In the US, the S&P 500 hit records highs, led by tech giants, as investors weighed tariff impacts and speculated on future rate cuts.