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There was a surprise drop in unemployment in December to 4.1%, the number of jobs available increased and household spending grew.

However, these elements have also contributed to persistently increasing inflation. In a higher-than-expected result, CPI rose 3.8% in the 12 months to December, up on the November figure and exceeding forecasts by economists and the RBA.

Many commentators are now predicting at least two, and perhaps-even three, interest rate rises this year.

The Aussie dollar remains strong, finishing the month at US$0.70. It’s up 11.4% since US President Trump’s inauguration while the US dollar has suffered, falling 11.2% during the same period.

The S&P/ASX 200 climbed 1.8% in January, reaching 8,869 come month’s end, but there’s still ground to be made up to reach last October’s peak.

The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index slipped 1.7% lower to 92.9 in January from 94.5 in December.

The economy came under renewed pressure in November as inflation accelerated. The first full monthly CPI release showed annual inflation rising to 3.8% in October, up from 3.6% the previous month. The Reserve Bank kept rates on hold in November and some economists are warning a rate rise may be on the horizon, possibly before the end of the year.

Despite the uncertainty, consumers may be getting their mojo back. The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index surged in November to its highest level since February 2022.

Unemployment eased a little to 4.3% in October after hitting a four-year high of 4.5% in September but wage growth remains higher, prompting concern from the RBA over the continued tight labour market.

Equity markets were volatile around the world thanks to uncertainty over the growing AI bubble, rising government debt and the ever-changing US tariff regime. Surging commodity prices halted the slide of the Australian dollar in the last week of the month with gold hitting record highs and iron ore prices holding firm. The Australian dollar hit a two-week high, finishing the month at $0.653.

Headline CPI rose to 3.2% in the September quarter, up from 2.1% in June, the highest quarterly rise in more than two years.

News of the higher-than-expected inflation numbers was followed by the biggest daily fall in the Australian share market in two months. Wall Street ended the month subdued with mixed results over concerns about no further rate cuts this year but optimism about US-China relations after a positive meeting between the leaders.

The lift in inflation appears to have rattled consumers. The Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell 3.5% in October, adding up to a 6.5% drop in the past two months after gains between May and August when rate cuts were giving a boost.

The Aussie dollar strengthened by the end of the month, closing at US65.4c, making up some of the lost ground of the previous fortnight.

Unemployment rose to 4.5% in September, the highest in nearly four years.

Headline CPI rose more than expected, from 2.8% to 3% prompting analysts to push back forecasts for further rate cuts until November or early 2026. Core inflation fell slightly to 2.6%, edging closer to the RBA’s target band, but price pressures persist in housing and services.

GDP grew 0.6% in the June quarter, driven by a rebound in consumer spending and solid wage growth. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%.

Despite cautious consumer sentiment – the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell 3.1% in September – business confidence remains upbeat, particularly in retail and manufacturing.

Despite the August/September period noted for being seasonally weak, markets remain at near record levels. The ASX 200 was supported by strong performance in banking and mining stocks. US equities, meanwhile, continue to push higher off the back of the AI boom and anticipation of rate cuts.

Commodity prices and risk appetite helped the Australian dollar touch an 11- month high before easing slightly.

Headline CPI rose more than expected, from 2.8% to 3% prompting analysts to push back forecasts for further rate cuts until November or early 2026. Core inflation fell slightly to 2.6%, edging closer to the RBA’s target band, but price pressures persist in housing and services.

GDP grew 0.6% in the June quarter, driven by a rebound in consumer spending and solid wage growth. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%.

Despite cautious consumer sentiment – the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index fell 3.1% in September – business confidence remains upbeat, particularly in retail and manufacturing.

Despite the August/September period noted for being seasonally weak, markets remain at near record levels. The ASX 200 was supported by strong performance in banking and mining stocks. US equities, meanwhile, continue to push higher off the back of the AI boom and anticipation of rate cuts.

Commodity prices and risk appetite helped the Australian dollar touch an 11- month high before easing slightly.

A higher-than-expected jump in inflation figures may prompt the RBA keep interest rates on hold at this month’s meeting. Headline CPI climbed to 2.8%, up from 1.9%. The trimmed mean, the RBA’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation, also rose to 2.7% in July from 2.1% in June.

Markets responded cautiously, though the S&P/ASX 200 still edged higher for the month and notching another all-time high. The rally was driven by mining and banking stocks.

The unemployment dipped slightly to 4.2% in July and business confidence is upbeat. The number of Australian businesses rose by 2.5% over the past financial year to more than 2.7 million. Total wages and salaries increased 5.9 per cent year-on-year. The momentum appears to be lifting consumer sentiment with the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index posting a solid gain 5.7% in August, a 3.5 year high.

As Aussie dollar finished the month at US65c and continues to be shaped by global factors.

In the US, the S&P 500 hit records highs, led by tech giants, as investors weighed tariff impacts and speculated on future rate cuts.

A higher-than-expected jump in inflation figures may prompt the RBA keep interest rates on hold at this month’s meeting. Headline CPI climbed to 2.8%, up from 1.9%. The trimmed mean, the RBA’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation, also rose to 2.7% in July from 2.1% in June.

Markets responded cautiously, though the S&P/ASX 200 still edged higher for the month and notching another all-time high. The rally was driven by mining and banking stocks.

The unemployment dipped slightly to 4.2% in July and business confidence is upbeat. The number of Australian businesses rose by 2.5% over the past financial year to more than 2.7 million. Total wages and salaries increased 5.9 per cent year-on-year. The momentum appears to be lifting consumer sentiment with the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index posting a solid gain 5.7% in August, a 3.5 year high.

As Aussie dollar finished the month at US65c and continues to be shaped by global factors.

In the US, the S&P 500 hit records highs, led by tech giants, as investors weighed tariff impacts and speculated on future rate cuts.

Interest rates and tariffs continue to influence markets globally.

In Australia, soft inflation data has paved the way for a possible rate cut. CPI slowed more than expected to an annual rate of 2.1% from 2.4% and core inflation – the RBA’s preferred measure – fell to 2.7% from 2.9%.

US interest rates were kept steady in July despite pressure from President Trump. The greenback eased in response, providing a small boost to the Australian dollar, which has been on a rollercoaster ride in recent times

The US S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 continue to record all-time highs as tariffs begin to be locked in and AI investment takes off.

Meanwhile, the S&P ASX 200 experienced another volatile month, but the trend continued upwards and included an all-time high.

There are also signs of consumer optimism. The July Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index found consumers buoyed by the chance of interest rate cuts this year.

Interest rates and tariffs continue to influence markets globally.

In Australia, soft inflation data has paved the way for a possible rate cut. CPI slowed more than expected to an annual rate of 2.1% from 2.4% and core inflation – the RBA’s preferred measure – fell to 2.7% from 2.9%.

US interest rates were kept steady in July despite pressure from President Trump. The greenback eased in response, providing a small boost to the Australian dollar, which has been on a rollercoaster ride in recent times

The US S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 continue to record all-time highs as tariffs begin to be locked in and AI investment takes off.

Meanwhile, the S&P ASX 200 experienced another volatile month, but the trend continued upwards and included an all-time high.

There are also signs of consumer optimism. The July Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index found consumers buoyed by the chance of interest rate cuts this year.

Wars in Europe and the Middle East, volatile oil prices and shifting US policies are making headlines but failing to dampen the optimism of the markets.

The ASX closed the financial year with a near 10% return – its strongest since the COVID-19 crisis and despite US tariff threats.

Australia is somewhat insulated from the tariffs, but concern lingers that the federal government’s $1.5 trillion invested in the US, faces a tax hike.

The tariffs are a bigger risk for the US economy, with inflationary risks from tariffs possibly prompting rate increases. Nonetheless, Wall Street remains upbeat. The S&P 500 index surged to a four-month high in June on hopes of further rate cuts and smooth trade negotiations.

In Australia, forecasts of further interest rate cuts have fractured since tensions flared in the Middle East, with some expecting a July cut and others now tipping August.

The Aussie dollar has climbed to a seven-month high, while the US dollar tumbled to a three-year low.

Oil prices posted their sharpest weekly declines after a spike during June as the Middle East conflict reached boiling point.