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February marks the end of summer holidays for many of us and getting down to business for 2023. It can be a good time to reflect on plans and goals for the months ahead.

China’s plans to kickstart its economy after the pandemic shutdown have been dominating the news this month and will have worldwide implications, not the least for Australia. As our largest trading partner, an increase in demand is likely to bring improvements in our commodity prices, exports and share prices (particularly of companies exposed to China).

Australian shares were up nearly 8% in January while US stocks climbed by about 5% but the markets are nervously waiting for expected increases in interest rates by major central banks this month to help curb inflation.

Australia’s inflation rate jumped by 1.9% in the December quarter to 7.8% for the year. It was the biggest increase since 1990 and more than twice the rate of wage growth, despite the Reserve Bank’s moves to increase the cash rate during 2022.

The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index increased slightly in January to finish at 86.8 points but it’s still 15 points behind the same time last year. The NAB business conditions survey recorded a third successive fall in December although business confidence improved slightly and remains well above average.

The Aussie dollar fell slightly from near eight-month highs, easing towards US70c ahead of the expected rate rises by major central banks overseas.

As a new year begins, we wish everyone a happy, healthy and prosperous 2023. Many families will be glad to put 2022 behind them and although challenges remain, we look forward to better times ahead.

As 2022 drew to a close, investors remained focused on inflation, interest rates and recession worries. Inflation is running at around 7% to 11% in most advanced economies, including Australia (7.3%). The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lifted its target cash rate by another 25 basis points to 3.1% in December, the eighth monthly rise in a row, up from 0.1% in May. The RBA noted that “inflation is expected to take several years to return to target range (2-3%)”, and most economists expect at least one more rate increase.

High inflation and borrowing costs continued to weigh on consumers in December. The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer price index was steady at 82.5 points in the run-up to Christmas, 26 points below the same period the year before. Slowing consumer demand and rising costs also dragged the NAB business confidence index into negative territory for the first time in 2022, down to -4.4 points in November.

But it’s not all bad news. Australian company profits rose 18.6% in the year to September, the fastest pace in five years. Unemployment remains low, despite edging up to 3.45% in November and annual wages growth was 3.1% in the September quarter, the fastest pace in a decade. The Aussie dollar lifted slightly to US68.13c in December, down 6% for the year. Iron ore prices lifted 8% over the month but were down 1% for the year, while oil prices (Brent Crude) eased slightly but were up 11.4% in 2022 as war in Ukraine disrupted supply.

It’s December, summer is here and holidays are just around the corner. We take this opportunity to wish you and your family a happy festive season!

The big story on the global economic front continues to be inflation, and how high interest rates will go to tame it. November began with the US Federal Reserve hiking its federal funds target range by another 75 basis points to 3.75-4.00%. There are signs the tough approach is working, with the annual rate of inflation falling from 9.1% in June to 7.7% in October.

In Australia, the Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate another 25 basis points to a decade high of 2.85%. Inflation fell to 6.9% in the year to October, down from 7.3% in September, but remains high and economic signals are mixed. Reserve Bank governor Philip Lowe is keeping a close eye on consumer spending, where higher interest rates are having an impact. Retail trade fell 0.1% in October for the first time this year. And while the ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer sentiment index was up 5.6% to 83.1 points in the last three weeks of November, it remains 22.9 points below the same week last year. But rate hikes are not yet affecting the labour market, with unemployment falling to a 48-year low of 3.4% in October, while annual wages growth rose 1% to 3.13% in the September quarter, the fastest growth in a decade.

The Aussie dollar lifted 3c to around US67c over the month, crude oil prices fell 10% while iron ore lifted 0.5%. Shares remain skittish but positive overall. The ASX200 index rose more than 5% in November while the US S&P500 index was up more than 2%.

Welcome to our newsletter. While the race that stops a nation is always a highlight of early November, on the economic front the Labor government’s first Budget, handed down in late October, has been a talking point.

Treasurer Jim Chalmers’ first Budget was delivered against a backdrop of continuing turmoil on the global economic front. The UK reversed its promised tax cuts that spelled the end of Liz Truss’ brief tenure as Prime Minister. She was replaced by the more economically credible Rishi Sunak. In the US, media reports suggested the US Federal Reserve will scale back its aggressive interest rate hikes in December. Both events were welcomed by financial markets, but the same challenges remain. Escalating war in Ukraine, energy supply shortages, rising inflation and interest rate hikes to fight it, still point to a likely recession in the US and elsewhere. Oil prices continue to rise as OPEC restricts supply, with Brent Crude up about 13% this month, but recession fears are moderating the price pressures.

In Australia, economic signals are mixed. Reserve Bank assistant governor, Luci Ellis said in a speech that Australia’s ‘’neutral” cash rate should be at least 2.5%. The rate is already at 2.6% after a 25-basis point rise this month, but further increases are expected. Unemployment rose slightly to 3.5% in September, perhaps indicating labour shortages are easing. The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index slipped below its 2022 average of 90.3 on recession fears and the falling Aussie dollar. The dollar fell another 2c to around US63.2c in October. Businesses are more optimistic, with the NAB business conditions index up 3 points to a 15-month high of 25 points in September.

It’s October and the footy finals are almost over, depending on which code you follow. In Canberra though, Treasurer Jim Chalmers is warming up for his first Budget on October 25 against a background of mounting economic pressures.

In September, persistently high inflation and aggressive rate hikes by the world’s central banks put global share and bond markets under pressure. The US Federal Reserve has lifted rates seven times this year, but US inflation remains at 8.3%. There is now growing fear that central banks may push the world into recession. In a surprise twist, the Bank of England (which has also lifted rates seven times this year) was forced to switch back to Quantitative Easing, buying government bonds to support the British pound which crashed to a record low in response to a stimulatory mini-Budget released by the new Conservative Party leadership. This led to a late relief rally on global sharemarkets and a fall in the US dollar and global bond yields. Even so, major global sharemarkets finished the month down 6% or more.

In Australia, the picture is a little brighter. Economic growth was up 3.6% in the year to June. Company profits are also strong, up 28.5% in the year to June, and unemployment remains low, at 3.5% in August. While inflation eased from 7% in July to 6.8% in August, due to falling petrol prices, it is still well above the Reserve Bank’s 2-3% target. Aussie consumers continue to spend at record levels, pushing up retail spending by 19.2% in the year to August, and petrol prices are set to increase by at least 22c a litre after the reinstatement of the fuel excise. Both will put upward pressure on inflation and interest rates.

The Aussie dollar fell more than 3c against the surging US dollar in September, to US65c.

Welcome to our Spring newsletter. September means it’s football finals season and hopefully the beginning of warmer weather despite the recent late winter chill.

In August, the focus was on US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell’s speech at the annual Jackson Hole business gathering on August 26, and he was blunt. To hose down talk of interest rate cuts in 2023, he said the Fed was focused on bringing US inflation down to 2% (from 8.5% now), even at the risk of recession. He said this will “take some time”, will likely require a “sustained period of below trend economic growth”, and households should expect “some pain” in the months ahead. The S&P500 share index promptly fell 3.4% and bond yields rose. Economists expect the US central bank will continue lifting rates each month for the remainder of 2022.

In Australia, economic conditions are less gloomy. Australia’s trade surplus was a record $136.4 billion in 2022-23. Unemployment fell to 3.4% in July while wages growth rose to an annual rate of 2.6% in the year to June, the strongest in 8 years but well below inflation. The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index rose slightly in September to a still depressed 85.0 points while the NAB business confidence index jumped to +6.9 points in July, well above the long-term average of +5.4 points. Half-way through the June half-year reporting season, CommSec reports ASX200 company profits increased 56% in aggregate while dividends are 6% lower on a year earlier.

The Aussie dollar fell more than one cent over the month to close around US68.5c. Aussie shares bucked the global trend, finishing steady over the month.

It’s August and as winter draws to a close there’s snow in the Alps and the wattle is blooming. Many Australians will soon receive a sizeable tax refund, if they haven’t already, which should help ease those rising cost-of-living blues.

Rising inflation and interest rates were the focus of attention in July. The US Federal Reserve lifted its target rate by 75 basis points to 2.25-2.50% to tackle surging inflation of 9.1%. At the same time, the US economy contracted by 0.9% in the June quarter, following a 1.6% drop in the March quarter.

By contrast, Australia is performing relatively well. In his first economic statement, treasurer Jim Chalmers downgraded growth forecasts to a still solid 3.75% last financial year and 3% this financial year. Inflation jumped to 6.1% in the year to June and is forecast to peak above 7% in December. And the Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate by 50 basis points to 1.35% in July, with a similar increase tipped this month and more to come. Governor Philip Lowe said he expects rates to get to ‘at least’ 2.5%. Unemployment fell to 3.5% in June, but rising prices and interest rates dented confidence. The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index sits at 82.4 points – below 100 is pessimistic. While the NAB business confidence index fell 5 points to +1.4 points in June.

The biggest hit to inflation has come from housing and construction prices and petrol. But the housing market is cooling due to rising interest rates, with national home values easing 0.6% in June and new dwelling starts down 6.5% in the March quarter. Petrol prices are also easing, down 19c to below $1.93 a litre in late July on falling global oil prices. The Aussie dollar gained a cent to finish the month around US70c.

Welcome to our July newsletter and the start of a new financial year. With winter in full swing, it’s a great time to rug up by the fire, take stock of the year that was and make plans for the future.

June was a big month in an eventful year for the local and global economy, with inflation and interest rates continuing to dominate. The US Federal Reserve lifted official rates by 0.75% to a target range of 1.50-1.75% to combat surging inflation of 8.6% in the year to May, stoking fears of a US recession.

Australia faces similar but less acute challenges. With inflation sitting at 5.1%, the Reserve Bank lifted the cash rate by 0.5% to 0.85% in June and Governor Philip Lowe hinted at more to come in July. The Australian economy is still growing relatively strongly at an annual rate of 3.3%. Retail trade rose 10.4% in the year to May on the back of low unemployment and high household savings. Household wealth rose to a record high of $574,807 in the year to March, but since then there has been a global sell-off in shares, a slowdown in the Australian housing market and cost of living pressures are mounting. The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence reading remains weak at 84.7 points (100 is neutral).

Australia’s national average petrol price rose to 211.9c a litre in June, the second highest on record, on the back of a surge in global oil prices. Brent Crude rose almost 45% over the past year as the war in Ukraine disrupts supply. Despite a late bounce in shares, the ASX200 fell 9.6% in the year to June, while US shares were down more than 12%. The Aussie dollar lost ground over the financial year to finish below US69c.

June has arrived and so has winter, as the financial year draws to a close. Now that the federal election is out of the way, it’s time to focus on planning for the future with more certainty.

Cost of living pressures, inflation and interest rates were major concerns in the lead-up to the May federal election. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lifted the cash rate for the first time in over 11 years from 0.1% to 0.35%, as inflation hit 5.1%. This followed the US Federal Reserve’s decision to lift rates by 50 basis points to 0.75-1.00%, the biggest rate hike in 22 years as inflation hit 8.5%. Global pressures are largely to blame, from war in Ukraine and rising oil prices to supply chain disruptions and food shortages. The price of Brent Crude surged a further 27% in May.

As a result, the RBA has cut its growth forecast for the year to June from 5% to 3.5% and raised its inflation forecast from 3.25% to 4.5%. On the ground, the economic news is mixed. New business investment fell 0.3% in the March quarter but still rose 4.5% on the year. The NAB business confidence index fell from +16.3 point to +9.9 points in April, still above its long-term average. Adding to inflationary pressures, labour and materials shortages and bad weather saw building costs rise 2.8% in the March quarter, while retail trade rose further in April to be up 9.6% over the year.

On the positive side, unemployment fell further from 4% to 3.9% in April, the lowest rate since 1974, while annual wages growth rose slightly in the March quarter from 2.3% to 2.4%, still well below inflation.

Welcome to our May newsletter, and while the weather is cooling the economic and political landscape is heating up. All eyes are on interest rates as the federal election campaign shifts into top gear ahead of the May 21 polling day.

The economic event that overshadowed all others in April was the release of the March quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI), which showed inflation up 2.1% in the quarter and 5.1% on an annual basis. This was the biggest lift in prices since 2001 and well above the Reserve Bank’s target of 2-3%. The biggest increases were for fuel, housing construction, and food as the war in Ukraine pushes up global oil prices and the cost of transporting food and other goods. Most economists now agree that the Reserve will lift official interest rates on Tuesday from their current historic low of 0.1%. The question now is by how much. Any rate rise will be passed through to variable mortgage rates, putting more pressure on household budgets during an election campaign where cost of living is a major theme.

On a positive note, unemployment fell below 4% in March, its lowest since 1974 as the economy continues to recover from COVID-related disruptions. As a result, businesses are more confident, with the NAB business confidence index lifting to a five-month high of 15.8 points in March, well above its long-term average of 5.4 points. Consumers are less confident, with the Westpac-Melbourne Institute consumer sentiment rating down 0.9% in April to a 19-month low of 95.8 points.

The Aussie dollar fell from US75c to around US71c over the month, adding to cost pressures on imported goods. Oil prices eased slightly, with Brent crude down 6% in April but up 48% on the year.