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A higher-than-expected jump in inflation figures may prompt the RBA keep interest rates on hold at this month’s meeting. Headline CPI climbed to 2.8%, up from 1.9%. The trimmed mean, the RBA’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation, also rose to 2.7% in July from 2.1% in June.

Markets responded cautiously, though the S&P/ASX 200 still edged higher for the month and notching another all-time high. The rally was driven by mining and banking stocks.

The unemployment dipped slightly to 4.2% in July and business confidence is upbeat. The number of Australian businesses rose by 2.5% over the past financial year to more than 2.7 million. Total wages and salaries increased 5.9 per cent year-on-year. The momentum appears to be lifting consumer sentiment with the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index posting a solid gain 5.7% in August, a 3.5 year high.

As Aussie dollar finished the month at US65c and continues to be shaped by global factors.

In the US, the S&P 500 hit records highs, led by tech giants, as investors weighed tariff impacts and speculated on future rate cuts.

A higher-than-expected jump in inflation figures may prompt the RBA keep interest rates on hold at this month’s meeting. Headline CPI climbed to 2.8%, up from 1.9%. The trimmed mean, the RBA’s preferred gauge of underlying inflation, also rose to 2.7% in July from 2.1% in June.

Markets responded cautiously, though the S&P/ASX 200 still edged higher for the month and notching another all-time high. The rally was driven by mining and banking stocks.

The unemployment dipped slightly to 4.2% in July and business confidence is upbeat. The number of Australian businesses rose by 2.5% over the past financial year to more than 2.7 million. Total wages and salaries increased 5.9 per cent year-on-year. The momentum appears to be lifting consumer sentiment with the Westpac-Melbourne Institute Index posting a solid gain 5.7% in August, a 3.5 year high.

As Aussie dollar finished the month at US65c and continues to be shaped by global factors.

In the US, the S&P 500 hit records highs, led by tech giants, as investors weighed tariff impacts and speculated on future rate cuts.

Interest rates and tariffs continue to influence markets globally.

In Australia, soft inflation data has paved the way for a possible rate cut. CPI slowed more than expected to an annual rate of 2.1% from 2.4% and core inflation – the RBA’s preferred measure – fell to 2.7% from 2.9%.

US interest rates were kept steady in July despite pressure from President Trump. The greenback eased in response, providing a small boost to the Australian dollar, which has been on a rollercoaster ride in recent times

The US S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 continue to record all-time highs as tariffs begin to be locked in and AI investment takes off.

Meanwhile, the S&P ASX 200 experienced another volatile month, but the trend continued upwards and included an all-time high.

There are also signs of consumer optimism. The July Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index found consumers buoyed by the chance of interest rate cuts this year.

Interest rates and tariffs continue to influence markets globally.

In Australia, soft inflation data has paved the way for a possible rate cut. CPI slowed more than expected to an annual rate of 2.1% from 2.4% and core inflation – the RBA’s preferred measure – fell to 2.7% from 2.9%.

US interest rates were kept steady in July despite pressure from President Trump. The greenback eased in response, providing a small boost to the Australian dollar, which has been on a rollercoaster ride in recent times

The US S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 continue to record all-time highs as tariffs begin to be locked in and AI investment takes off.

Meanwhile, the S&P ASX 200 experienced another volatile month, but the trend continued upwards and included an all-time high.

There are also signs of consumer optimism. The July Westpac–Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index found consumers buoyed by the chance of interest rate cuts this year.

Wars in Europe and the Middle East, volatile oil prices and shifting US policies are making headlines but failing to dampen the optimism of the markets.

The ASX closed the financial year with a near 10% return – its strongest since the COVID-19 crisis and despite US tariff threats.

Australia is somewhat insulated from the tariffs, but concern lingers that the federal government’s $1.5 trillion invested in the US, faces a tax hike.

The tariffs are a bigger risk for the US economy, with inflationary risks from tariffs possibly prompting rate increases. Nonetheless, Wall Street remains upbeat. The S&P 500 index surged to a four-month high in June on hopes of further rate cuts and smooth trade negotiations.

In Australia, forecasts of further interest rate cuts have fractured since tensions flared in the Middle East, with some expecting a July cut and others now tipping August.

The Aussie dollar has climbed to a seven-month high, while the US dollar tumbled to a three-year low.

Oil prices posted their sharpest weekly declines after a spike during June as the Middle East conflict reached boiling point.

Now that the federal election is out of the way, and another financial year is drawing to a close, it’s a perfect time to look back at all you’ve achieved over the past 12 months and focus on a fresh start for the financial year to come.

While market volatility continued, markets largely recovered from April’s losses in May. However, the legal and economic uncertainty of US tariffs remain a key concern for global and local markets.

The end of the month saw the S&P/ASX 200 react positively at first to the news that a US federal judge had blocked the tariffs. When an appeals court temporarily stayed the tariffs hours later, a mini sell-off followed. The index has jumpstarted its way to a three-month high, not quite back to its best in February.

There was a sigh of relief all round when the Reserve Bank lowered interest rates in May by 25 basis points to 3.85%. The RBA’s move came with a caveat that, while domestic demand “appears” to be recovering and real household incomes have picked up, the outlook is unclear because of both local and international developments.

Inflation was slightly higher than expected for the 12 months to April, but it remained within the RBA’s target range and many economists are predicting another rate cut in July.

Meanwhile fears of inflation in the United States and alarm about unpredictable and escalating tariffs saw sharp falls on Wall Street during March, particularly in the final week.

In Australia, the events in the US, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East and the start of the federal election campaign have all made their mark. The S&P/ASX 200 reacted with an almost 5% drop during March.

The Australian dollar, in the doldrums all year, improved slightly during the month before ending lower at around 63US cents.

Economic growth was up 0.6% in the December quarter and 1.3% for the year and household wealth climbed 0.9% in the same period.Inflation rose 2.4% in the 12 months to February, a slight softening from the previous month’s increase of 2.5%.

Consumer sentiment recorded a 4% rise in March, according to the Melbourne Institute and Westpac Bank Sentiment index. The RBA’s decision to cut interest rates in February and a further easing in cost-of-living pressures have provided a clear lift.  

Inflation remained steady in February, at 2.5 per cent and core inflation at 2.8 per cent; however, the RBA remains cautious and has not guaranteed further cash rate cuts in 2025. Some economists are predicting further cuts in 2025, but time will tell.

While there is ongoing tension between Russia-Ukraine and the Middle East, and a looming trade war due to Trump’s proposed tariffs, the global economic outlook continues to remain unpredictable.

US markets reacted to the lower-than-expected consumer spending and continued geopolitical issues, with another month of volatility.

It’s also been volatile on the Aussie share market, with the ASX 200 losing ground earlier in the month, bouncing back to reach an all-time high, only to start falling again to close at it’s lowest point in two months.

A similar pattern has been happening with the Aussie dollar, reaching a high of $0.64US cents mid-February, then losing momentum, and now hovering around $0.62US cents.

The government provided some cost-of-living relief, which has had a cooling effect on inflation – sitting at 2.4 per cent at the December 2024 quarter, down from 2.8 per cent in September 2024. Trimmed inflation is 3.4 per cent, down from 3.6 per cent last quarter. While inflation is nearing its target, multiple interest rate cuts throughout 2025 would be welcomed by mortgage holders.

Recently, Trump 2.0 has been making global headlines, the tech clash between the US and China has also been dominating. Last week, US tech giant Nvidia recorded a 17 per cent plunge in a single day, which is now the biggest loss in US share market history. This was due to Chinese AI company DeepSeek unveiling a program to rival its competitors and become more cost-effective to operate. Markets made a quick recovery.

Domestically, the ASX 200 continued a bumpy ride, although it finished the month at an all-time high of 8,532 points.

The Aussie dollar is holding steady around 62 US cents.